Readings for February 2nd, 2008


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February 3rd, 2008 »

Paul Graham: The Future of Web Startups

There's something interesting happening right now. Startups are undergoing the same transformation that technology does when it becomes cheaper.

It's a pattern we see over and over in technology. Initially there's some device that's very expensive and made in small quantities. Then someone discovers how to make them cheaply; many more get built; and as a result they can be used in new ways.

Computers are a familiar example. When I was a kid, computers were big, expensive machines built one at a time. Now they're a commodity. Now we can stick computers in everything.

This pattern is very old. Most of the turning points in economic history are instances of it. It happened to steel in the 1850s, and to power in the 1780s. It happened to cloth manufacture in the thirteenth century, generating the wealth that later brought about the Renaissance. Agriculture itself was an instance of this pattern.

Now as well as being produced by startups, this pattern is happening to startups. It's so cheap to start web startups that orders of magnitudes more will be started. If the pattern holds true, that should cause dramatic changes.

Source: Paul Graham
Comments most welcome. I will comment on it later as well.
Sahar

Is Google Killing The Domain Channel?

Ok, first and foremost and as Ive been posting recently, Google have recently been playing hardball in the domaining arena. They have been banning domainers, domains, closing the AFD application process, killing sub-sub syndication deals (most notably ASK - which Ive now had confirmed from the horses mouth), reducing revenue shares for partners and not appointing a new head of their domain channel. All of which points to them not believing the domain channel is something thats for them in the future. The reason for their apathy is open to debate, though one doubtless reason is because they have the monopoly in sponsored search.
Source: Julia Mackenzie
This is much bigger than ASK. Time will reveal more.
Sahar

Elusive wolves caught on camera

Remarkable new footage of Canada's Arctic wolves has been caught on camera by a BBC crew.

The team managed to film the wolves taking to the water to hunt waterfowl - behaviour that has never been seen before, according to an expert.

Arctic wolves live in the Canadian Arctic and northern parts of Greenland; observing them is a difficult task as they rarely interact with humans.

The team followed a pack on Ellesmere Island for several weeks last summer.

This glimpse into the lives of these elusive animals was filmed for the Natural World wildlife programme: White Falcon, White Wolf, which also features other animals, including gyr falcons, Arctic foxes and snowy owls, that live on the remote island. 

Source: BBC
Don't miss the videos!

Rick Schwartz: Valuation is in the eye of the beholder.

Morning folks!!

I have been very tough on appraisal services because I don't see any that are truly qualified. I have blogged about appraisals several times. And let me say, that appraising a domain and figuring value is a very difficult thing. It is difficult because each domain is completely unique. Some domains may be one dimensional while others may have many facets and are adaptable to many companies, industries or promotions. It is difficult when you don't know who the actual appraiser is. Do they appraise high? Do they appraise low? Are they completely educated about domains? So a lot of "Transparency" needs to happen here as well.

I tried an experiment and had 21 professional domain owners that I know personally give their best shot on putting a value on 5 of my domains. From a group of elite individuals like this it is possible to see a picture develop and market price. I removed the names to protect their privacy. I provided no stats whatsoever. But the numbers are the numbers and this was done in a thoughtful manner. When I look at something like this I generally throw out the high numbers and I throw out the low numbers. I try to focus on the common numbers. In over 12 years on the net this was the first time I had ever asked others for a valuation for valuations sake. See if a picture develops for you.

Appraisal #1
Widgets.com - $350,000 - $500,000
Girls.net - $75,000 - $90,000
Candy.com - $3,000,000 - $4,000,000
Cheapest.com - $100,000 - $150,000
DailyVideo.com - $10,000 - $15,000
Source: Rick's Blog
Unlike Real Estate, domain names can be used creatively. Want 1000 pages? no problem. A million? Sure A BILLION? Go Ahead. A Trillion? Yup. You get the point. You can do whatever. How does that relate to appraisals? Commercial Real Estate is based on historical data and zoning restrictions. With domains, while we do not have deep data (old history), we do have some historical data to go by. But zoning? There is NONE. Why is it important? Because you can not get to an answer if you only have half of the equation. Try to solve this one: 1+X? Essentialy, that is the formula appraisal services face where "1" represents historical data and "X", which represents creativity, stays unknown. What is the answer? The answer is.. no way knowing.
Sahar