I’m in the beginning of a biography book called “Carnegie”, by Peter Krass.“8″ was always my lucky number so I was looking forward to get to page 88. In some books page 88 turns out to be nothing special but today, page 88 was nothing short of destiny herself. It was what many of us have been saying for a long time about new domain name extensions and idn’s. The difference is, this was said over a hundred years ago (1867), by no other then Mr. Andrew Carnegie himself.
The following was said to Mr. Thomas Alexander Scott (the railroad prince), when Mr. Scott approached Mr. Carnegie about investing in a new Chrome Steel process, at the time an unproven business endeavour.
My advice (which don’t cost anything if of no value) would be to have nothing to do with this or any great change in the manufacture of Steel or Iron. I know at least six inventors who have the secret, all are so anxiously awaiting. . . . That there is to be a great change in the manufr. of iron & steel some of these years is probable, but exactly what form it is to take no one knows. I would advise you to steer clear of the whole thing. One will win, but many lose & you & I not being practical men would wager at very long odds. There are many enterprises where we can go in even.
Thank you sincerely Mr. Carnegie!
I agree with Mr Carnegie - “one will win”. Being a trailblazer involves more risk but a potentially greater reward. The question is, are you willing to take the risk or stick with the safer .com option?
Was .com domain investment a safe investment 7-10 years ago? I don’t think so, yet I applaud those who took the risk who are now reaping the rewards.
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Seven and a half years ago, when I first started in the domain business, there was enough of a pattern to know .com is a safer bet then anything else. We decided right from the start to only buy .com’s. This cannot be said about 10-15 years ago however, it can be said in a much stronger tone today. There’s tremendous amount of history to show new extensions flop time and again while .com gets stronger and stronger. Not one new extension has yet to make a dent in .com. How do you explain that? This is not to say there won’t be one, but the risk here is not 1 to 5 nor 1 to 10, but more like 1 to a 100 or 1 to a 1000.
With regards
Sahar
Wow .. great post
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Thank you sir. I read this one at the coffee shop and even though I usually would finish a chapter before leaving, I could not wait to share this. Few hours later, the words of Mr. Carnegie are still ringing in my ears. I suspect they will ring in my ears forever.
Sahar
Thanks Sahar, Great Post.
That being said and sincerly meant, I can’t help but add, we must also remember and temper Mr. Carnegie’s wisdom with the words of J. P. Morgan who was actually the RICHEST man of this time and the person who bought out Mr. Carnegie’s steel company and made it into the giant US Steel:
“Hesitation, when one is confronted with a great business idea, is without a doubt, the single largest obstacle to wealth. It is only through dynamic action and financial risk that great fortunes are amassed and multiplied.”
J.P. Morgan 1902
Dot Mobi may be dying and many other extensions have come and gone and will also go but, IMHO, I don’t think we have seen the end of DOT TV. “There may be a diamond in them there pebbles”. All the best, Chris.
ChrisHartnett.TV
http://www.Tedhens.com
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Thanks for commenting Chris. It’s important to note, in Mr. Carnegie’s advice, who it was to and what was their positions in life. This was meant for a well established and sophisticated investor and not the common man, nor the inventors.
As for Dot TV, while things may change one day for dot tv there’s definitely a pattern by now of bad managements, cheap talk, and little adoption of the dot TV extension by the masses. For established and sophisticated investors, as Carnegie would say, “Steer clear”.
Looking forward to seeing you soon at TRAFFIC.
Your friend,
Sahar
Frank Schilling AND Dr. Chris Hartnett commenting in the same thread.. WOW!
Only one missing..Sahar
I am pretty sure that many decades from now, both Frank and yourself (Sahar) will be quoted by others like you are doing of Carnegie. Dr. Hartnett quoting JP Morgan, that is something else as well. I can’t believe the things Dr. Hartnett has accomplished and his kind heart. I can only listen to his experiences with amazement.
My thoughts on dot com versus other gtlds and cctlds are that dot com is like downtown and the others are like suburbs. Suburbs can come in favor and out of favor but downtown will always be downtown. If I had to spend my time, I’d do it in the dot com arena. Time and time again I have seen those who have built out a successful website/business in other extentions only to realize they need the dot com. Topix.net is one good example of that and they made a good move of getting topix.com, even though it cost them a million. Imagine if they waited longer…
At the end of the day, the value is created on top of the domain name and as long as the domain is somewhat brandable, it is certainly possible to build very successful businesses on other tlds. For me, the fuel that comes with dot com, the mindshare it has is sustainable.
I am always leary of disruptive technology as well as trends but I have also learned that things don’t happen immediately. They take time and it’s like watching a bullet in slow motion (matrix). It happened with many things like social sites, blogs, wikis, widgets, semantics etc.
I will quote the wisest man in the world, King Solomon.
“The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.”
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Thanks Kevin so much for those wise and kind words. The quote you chose is truly beautiful. In Israel, where (as you can imagine) it is widely quoted , the main part of it goes like this (Hebrew):
“En Chadash Tachat Ha’shemesh” (there is no new thing under the sun)
Sahar
Whilst the sentiments of Mr Carnegie are admirable without those who are innovators and those who are willing to take a risk the world would be a dreary and desolate place.
I would hazard a guess that penicillin was hardly something that Mr Fleming would have thought would grow into the multi-billion dollar antibiotic industry it is today.
I agree in the main with regards to new extensions but you can not put IDNs in the same bracket. IDNs are necessary for those who do not speak or communicate in English. A Chinese business that caters to Chinese speaking people, whether they live in China or overseas will want to use a domain name in a language his customers understand rather than a random collection of Latin letters they don’t.
Fairly logical reasoning?
Also, a common misconception I have seen time and time again amongst ASCII domainers are those who lump IDNs in with ccTLD or other extensions. IDNs are available in .com, .net and are available to register as such, though you will be hard pressed to get your hands on a decent one for registration fee.
It is fine for those who sit on lofty perches with a portfolio stuffed to overflowing with generic keyword ASCII domains to be as cautious as Mr Carnegie, why, after all, would there be an attraction in something that may be seen as potentially ‘risky’ when there is no need to move out of the comfort zone?
Factually speaking there are less people who speak English than Chinese so you would have to agree that it is impractical to expect them to use a language that’s not their own.
Whether you or I like it or not a sea change is happening, and right under our noses.
It is part of human nature to understate, ignore or decry things they do not fully understand but we do so at our peril. A wise man will investigate thoroughly and make it his business to understand, investigate and ingest, and only then make an informed conclusion as to the merits, or lack thereof
IDNs are where ASCII domains were in the mid/late 90’s
Those who have the foresight and can see the need will reap the rewards and those who don’t will be left where you would find yourself if entering the ASCII domain business now.
There is room for both ASCII and IDNs as of course not everyone speaks Chinese, and no rational man would insist on everyone using Chinese domain names when there are so many Latin language users amongst us.
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Thanks for the well written comment.
Aren’t you and the rest of the IDN’s crowd still “anxiously awaiting” though? While I do agree that IDN investors have better odds then those who invest in new extensions, and I sincerely do hope it will work out for you, the merit of Mr. Carnegie’s advice still stands strong. This isn’t an issue of wether something will work or not however, to those who invest in something that is outside of their own control, such as investing in domain names or investing in companies other then their own, it is about increasing the odds of successful investing, at present time.
Sahar
As far as waiting goes IDNs are actively being searched for and people landing on those domains are being shown ads relevant to whichever language the domain is in (Thanks are in order to Namedrive for this for being the forward thinking innovators that they are) and there are those individuals who have developed on IDNs and are now seeing healthy traffic. The release of an IDN compatible browser from Microsoft has and will continue to be a major step in the right direction. Microsoft in their infinite wisdom seem to have pushed IE7 onto the English speaking world first. Why? Who knows .. Maybe as the test pilots.
Many countries where IDNs would be a logical choice have vetoed it until they have worked out incompatibility issues with existing software and systems. Japan for example, the big corporations refused to install it system wide until the first patches had been released and they were sure it wasn’t going to bring the Tokyo Stock Exchange crashing around their ears and so the automatic updates the Western World have been getting to ‘upgrade’ to IE7 have not been rolled out there and in many other countries, though if you believe Bill’s gang it is due ‘any time now’
Diversity is the only thing a good risk-balanced portfolio must absolutely have, everything else is optional. A domain portfolio is no different. There are good quality generic IDNs to be had right now for what will be pennies on the dollar in the not too distant future.
I have watched with interest the creeping rise of prices for IDNs. Of course, while they are not yet in a league comparable to ASCII domains I have a feeling they will soon be rising up the tables. I’m sure ASCII domainers have noticed a few IDN sales that Mr Jackson has reported in DNJournal and as with ASCII not all sales are reported.
Many would also seem to have conflicting interests, same as ASCII domains. There are those who wish to promote IDNs for their own short term means. Then there are those who try to suppress the market because they believe time is running out and soon prices will rise so a little scaremongering doesn’t go amiss if it keeps prices low and within reach, as padding out the portfolio will become more and more expensive.
Regardless of the shenanigans IDNs will find their place and become established.
Whilst ICANN, the slow moving giant that it is have taken years to get to where they are with regards to IDNs the last few hurdles are about to be vaulted. Countries are getting fed up waiting for ICANN to hold yet another all expenses paid vacation to another exotic location to discuss whatever it is they discuss and I have a feeling some pressure has been applied to finish what they started in as short a time as possible.
At the end of the day it is about risk management. If your bank balance can cope with a $10,000 hit for no return and life will go on much as before then nothing ventured, nothing gained.
If, on the other hand it is the dawning of a new era in domaining the the rewards are looking very attractive for a comparatively small investment.
I have always felt a connection with Carnegie, Vanderbilt, Edison, J.P. Morgan and the giants of the 19th century. They were great and flawed and imperfect like many of us. But there was just something different in the way they thought and the way they looked at things. I bet I look at them like they would look at Ben Franklin. I wonder how many times they thought about the connection they had with him? How many times they wished he was of their era? The strength they must have gotten from the genius of his contributions. Same cloth, just a different point in time.
Many of these industrial giants would get together in the summers. I like going to the places they used as a retreat. Saint Augustine, Floida was one. Asheville, North Carolina was another. You could only imagine the conversations they must have had.
I doubt there is anything one can achieve that won’t contain being called a fool for many years before your foolishness turns into gold. You will be labled many things by many people and almost 100% without a clue.
One just has to look at the domain business. 6 billion people were presented with the same opportunity and oh so few saw it then and only a few THOUSAND see it now. I think it may go down as one of the single biggest opportunities of all time. I say that because the entry level is so low and the rewards can be so high.
I have said many times over the years that the business giants of the last 2 centuries must be rolling in their graves to watch so many miss something so big and life changing.
I often ask myself what would they say if they were alive in this era? What grade would they give this business world in this form? What would THEY have achieved with the same opportunities that we have?
Being called a fool is perhaps one of the key ingredients of success. As I look back on where I have been, I have NEVER had a success where everyone cheered and thought it was a great idea. So when I hear the cheers, I know I have a lemon. Call me a “Fool” and I will smile ear to ear.
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Thank you Rick. While many try hard to “sound smart” you have a natural way, through alluring artistic metaphors, to relate timeless wisdom, ideas. When is the autobiography coming? I want the first copy!
Sahar
It is a great post Sahar, but extending Mr.Carnegie’s advice to not invest what would be enormous sums on unproven materials and technologies to new TLDs is rather a stretch.
Steel is a manufactured substance subject to natural laws of physics and our mastery of it or lack thereof can only be attributed to our fundamental understanding of those laws. Domainspace is an entirely artificial creation and the adoption of TLDs, IDNs or any second, third, etc level domain has mostly to do with the tricky fluid of Social Linguistics and popculture.
Dot com became what it is more or less by accident., the result of a fateful decision by Jon Postel to leave it as the one unrestriced TLD out of what was a small field of possibilities to begin with.
I remember back in 1989, when I first learned of domains, thinking how cool it would be to own sex and drugs and rocknroll dot NET. Grabbing a .com never crossed my mind. Had I actually followed up on that thought at the time I might have gone the extra distance to meet the qualifications necessary to obtain a .net TLD but possibly would have settled on the easier .com. Looking back we know that most entities settled on the path of least resistance and accepted the .com eventually leaving the TLD that was the obvious “natural” choice for Internet identity, .net, in the dust.
I may not be an Andrew Carnegie but I sometimes know a smart bet when I see one. It doesn’t take anywhere near the investment level of steel mills to buy into a new domain.
Here’s my picks:
Dot info, ok went large (for me) in the LR2.
Dot biz, didn’t like it at first but its catching on and I’ve warmed up to it. Got a few that are getting traffic now, just a trickle but it pays the reg fee.
Dot name? Ugh, how about “.lame”.
I feel about the same way about .mobi as I do .name. Talk about investing in new steel! Just because several large corps throw millions of dollars at this doesn’t mean its going to be a successful TLD. Maybe it was smart to get in on the Landrush but I wouldn’t dream of plunking down anything more than 100 bucks on one of these and only for a very good 1 or 2 word commercial phrase. It might catch on but its going to take a strenuous effort just to get it recognized, maybe a .mobi button on every new phone.
As long as domainspace is burdened with artificially restrictions then the net will continue to need and will create artificial solutions to overcome them.
I agree with you comments RE new TLDs but would not lump IDN domains into that logic. Indeed, I think it actually proves the wisdom of investing in IDN domains in the .com and cTLD namespace. The steel in this metaphor is simply the .com and cTLD name-space. And to believe that the name-space is limited to roman characters is not only factually wrong (non-roman .com and cTLDs have existed for some time) it is culturally myopic in the extreme.
Let’s take a real world example. The domain community seems to be collectively kicking themselves over the recent acquisition of Macau.com / Macao.com. These two domains sold a couple years ago for a total of around $600,000 and were probably sold for five to ten times that amount recently. They are great domains but if you understand anything about the region you’d also understand there is a far better domain to be had: 澳门.com or “macau.com” in Chinese.
Why? Aside from the fact that 90% of Macau’s tourism is native Chinese, the transliteration of “澳门” (macau in hanzi script) into English for Cantonese speakers is “Aomen”. It sounds nothing like “Macau” in English or Portuguese. What branding genius is going to be behind the radio and TV ads that say “Visit Aomen at “m-a-c-a-u.com”!?!
And as always there are the benefits of native language SEO:
Baidu search for 澳门: 36,700,000 results
Baidu search for Macau: 1,320,000 results
Some 35,000,000 more web pages with content for 澳门 over Macau?! The reality is that IDNs don’t represent some “great change in the manufacture of” the name-space. They simply recognize the reality that the world does not all speak English.
Haven’t you heard, 21st century is north east asia’s century. No? Oh? We’re only 2007, just the beginning, more to come.
IDNs are the future. Prices are going to go up exponentially within the next few years. There are hundreds of millions of people who do not speak english. Sure the anglo saxon view would be for EVERYONE in the whold world to speak english. That would be great…….. being able to go to ANY country in the world and speak to each other fluently. Thats not the case.
Ascii domain names are about to experience a great train wreck. Prices will continue to increase but will be slowed.
Shachar,
For the sophistocated investor stay away from .tv…..Why?? I have made plenty from the .tv extension in just nine months……
and if there isn’t yet, there should be another saying in Ivrit, “yesh kesef bkol makom, rak tsarich liftoach einayim……”
Hopefully my ivrit is not that bad (its been ten years since I lived there for a year)that you can understand what I am trying to say!!
“En Chadash Tachat Ha’shemesh (there is no new thing under the sun)”?
Haha Sahar now that shorter sentence I can remember. Even shorter “Old is New”?
From the standpoint of the investor looking to back something “new,” I’m not sure I can completely disagree.
I’m glad I’m not in that camp.
I’m the guy who comes up with the “something new” and gives it a go. And if it fails, I come up with something else “new,” and every now and again, I get lucky.
But at the end of the day, it only takes a few “lucky somethings new” to consider the entire exercise a success. So if the investors and players want to sit back and wait to see what is successful, and then play (albeit at a premium), I’m fine with that.
Just remember that *someone* has to do the innovation. I like being that someone
I wholeheartedly agree. I have always been a stickler for dot com domains. Only once was I lulled by the hype of a handful of .WS names… and I sincerely regret having bought them. Thanks for the good post and quotes.
From a marketing and advertising standpoint anything less than dot com is laughable unless ingeniously applied.
Ask the general public, “What is the first website name that comes to your mind that does not end in dot com?”
I am sure you will get blank stares.
You know it’s a good post when Frank gives you a wow.
Sahar -
Haven’t been able to post for a while. Those boys are keeping me busy . . .
I recently finished “Andrew Carnegie” by David Nasaw, it doesn’t have anything nearly as exciting on it’s page 88. It talks about his merger of two steel companies into Union Iron Mills.
When I read many biographies it becomes clear that many times the first-mover does not gain a huge advantage because they are burdened with the costs of development, advertising, regulatory issues, etc.
Carnegie’s approach to extracting wealth from companies was to begin, with a small equity position and then enter quickly when there was an opportunity to reorganize and recapitalize the industry.
Carnegie’s initial wealth was linked to the railroad, but he also was a major shareholder in one of the first oil companies, started his own telegraph company (which he sold to Western Union) and of course steel.
Jumping into other idn’s is a great way to lose a lot of money. Pooling your interests and making some small investments (the way Carnegie initially did) is probably the best way to go. If they appear to be paying off handsomely then pour on the coals. If not, then you have not wagered too much on a losing proposition.
BTW: I registered CarnegieSteel.com a little under a year ago
Great site! Nice to see others sharing model railroading ideas